Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 6.300148e-05 0.000076 0.000090 0.000106 0.000124 0.000143 0.000166
2025-03-09 4.385640e-05 0.000059 0.000078 0.000100 0.000127 0.000158 0.000195
2025-03-16 3.512559e-05 0.000052 0.000073 0.000100 0.000133 0.000172 0.000221
2025-03-23 2.840572e-05 0.000046 0.000069 0.000099 0.000139 0.000186 0.000247
2025-03-30 2.320030e-05 0.000041 0.000065 0.000098 0.000143 0.000197 0.000269
2025-04-06 1.841411e-05 0.000035 0.000060 0.000095 0.000144 0.000205 0.000286
2025-04-13 1.489544e-05 0.000031 0.000056 0.000093 0.000145 0.000213 0.000304
2025-04-20 1.121786e-05 0.000026 0.000050 0.000088 0.000142 0.000214 0.000312
2025-04-27 9.293601e-06 0.000024 0.000048 0.000088 0.000146 0.000223 0.000332
2025-05-04 7.908844e-06 0.000022 0.000047 0.000088 0.000150 0.000235 0.000354
2025-05-11 6.842036e-06 0.000021 0.000046 0.000090 0.000156 0.000248 0.000378
2025-05-18 5.787293e-06 0.000019 0.000045 0.000090 0.000160 0.000259 0.000400
2025-05-25 3.982299e-06 0.000016 0.000040 0.000086 0.000159 0.000263 0.000415
2025-06-01 2.617313e-06 0.000013 0.000036 0.000082 0.000157 0.000267 0.000430
2025-06-08 1.893084e-06 0.000011 0.000034 0.000081 0.000160 0.000277 0.000454
2025-06-15 1.370408e-06 0.000010 0.000033 0.000081 0.000164 0.000290 0.000481
2025-06-22 9.350372e-07 0.000009 0.000031 0.000080 0.000166 0.000299 0.000504
2025-06-29 5.688798e-07 0.000007 0.000028 0.000077 0.000166 0.000305 0.000521
2025-07-06 3.384921e-07 0.000006 0.000026 0.000075 0.000167 0.000313 0.000541
2025-07-13 1.460090e-07 0.000005 0.000023 0.000071 0.000163 0.000312 0.000548
2025-07-20 7.786342e-08 0.000004 0.000022 0.000070 0.000166 0.000322 0.000573
2025-07-27 4.211860e-08 0.000004 0.000022 0.000071 0.000171 0.000335 0.000601
2025-08-03 2.208518e-08 0.000003 0.000021 0.000072 0.000176 0.000350 0.000633